YIKES - AT 9:17 P.M. ET:  This is a surprise, and not a good one.  Is it possible that Lisa Murkowski of Alaska could pull off a Lieberman?  From The Politico:

Two new polls released Wednesday indicate that Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) write-in bid may have legs.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll showed Murkowski down by only 2 percentage points to GOP nominee Joe Miller, who upset the Alaska senator in the Republican primary last month. Democrat Scott McAdams came in third in the poll, drawing 22 percent.

The survey of 927 likely voters found that Murkowski is running particularly well among women, lower-income voters and seniors. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, and was conducted from September 24-28.

A separate poll released by Alaska-based Craciun Research reported Murkowski leading Miller by an 11 percentage point margin—41 percent to 30 percent. McAdams received 19 percent in that poll.

While the polls are good news for Murkowski, neither survey was able to gauge the likelihood that voters will indeed write in Murkowski’s name on the ballot—or if they will be able to correctly do so in order for their vote to be counted.

COMMENT:  The difference with Lieberman, of course, is that Lieberman formed a party when he was denied renomination to the Senate by the Democrats.  That meant that people could enter the voting booth and pull a lever.  Writing a name in is an entirely different procedure.

The two polls differ quite a bit.  We'll wait for others in the coming weeks.

September 29, 2010